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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: John Biddle who wrote (706)9/8/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 5853
 
John,

I would not expect an island of stability in the telecom equipment sector. As much as I like the long-term outlook for LU and CSCO, these stocks are not exactly cheap. Both are solid members of the Nifty Fifty. Message 5692949
Considering the current fragility of worldwide economic conditions and the shakiness of financial markets, I would not expect these shares to escape the anxiety of stock markets generally. They will probably come down to more reasonable PEs before resuming their more traditional upward trajectories.

I tend to feel that the significant ratio to keep in mind is the subjective bandwidth/content ratio. Why do you need 60 channels of TV if the content is largely garbage? Why spend money on your website if click-through on banner ads is negligible? Why expand your network if the entire business model rests on the necessity of unrealistically high penetration rates? With so much capacity out there, and with Net stocks like AMZN at tulipmania levels, how do you justify investment in the bandwidth augmentation business?

Sam
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