Mohan,
That was a very informative post. Your analysis is compelling. I remember commenting about Brinker's criticism of KO in a conversation with you some months ago. There is no way that KO can take a 50% hit unless the market as a whole comes down 30% or more, i.e. it is not just KO that is overvalued; it is the whole darn market!
And yet, Brinker (and a lot of his followers) believe that they can take a few more drinks at the watering hole and leave just before the crocodiles strike! Well, looking at recent events, it is clear that they got hit the same way as the rest of them zebras and wildebeests at the water's edge! :-)
Btw, Brinker was on KGO on the evening of the 512 point drop last Monday. He was criticizing Greenspan for not lowering the interest rates! And this from the same Brinker who said Greenspan should not concern himself with the stock-market, and mind his own business of running the economy <blah blah blah>, when the latter made that "irrational exuberance" comment! Very funny and very pathetic.
I now see that Truman Bradley has made the exit at the first sign of trouble, immediately after Brinker took a wrong turn and some of the lemmings walked off the cliff. This is the fate of all market-timers -- they seem to be capable of reading the tea leaves just right, sometimes for years, watching and tweaking all the components of their "model", and then... one fine day, BAM!!!! -- they get shafted by something that they didn't take into account!
Regards,
Dipy. |
