Jay,
I sold all my enterprise stocks including Manu about 3 weeks ago. Yes I actually think momentum left this sector 2-3 months ago, but I wasnt quick enough to see it then. I had some short positions in ERP which are in the money now. Im like you I guess, I used to have quite a few enterprise stocks and some were way way down, like Siebel (which is the strongest of the enterprise stocks imo) was down from a high of 38 to around 21 for a while. Also Manu was down but my cost basis was lower - I got hit with the high flyers a little more. So then, I gave up on the sector and bought more Dell and made it all back (or most of it, Im not sure, close anyway)
I dont understand, are you saying you lost buying Cisco? Cisco has held up fairly well. Dell has almost made it back to the prior highs.
My problem is, Im in Silicon Valley so I have a skewed view of the ERP space. We arent seeing a lot of y2k impact here, mostly because all the companies are so young. But I kept hearing y2k was going to hit the sector... and it appears to have done that, CATP announced recently a slowdown, so since there is obviously a y2k component to this then I dont see anything improving fundamentally until after 2000.
The one play you might consider is psft since my guess is they will take mkt share away from Oracle apps and perhaps Sap. Or, you can short Sap since they are still pretty inflated.
Msft looks better to me fundamentally now than ever before in its history. Im very excited about Sql server 7 and NT. Oracle is toast. |
