>>>Other than the obvious Greenspan dribble, NOTHING has changed global market conditions in the last few days.
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The indication that finally the Fed has awoken to it's badly mistaken policy of the last 6 months has helped the markets, as it should. However, in the past you only got sustained bull moves based on interest rates when the Fed dropped discount, not overnight, rates several times in a row, according to Marty Zweig's book. I also am suspicious of today's graph. Big pushes from the MMs and/or institutions in the first half hour and the last half hour of the day, with no interest from the public all through the middle part of the day, as far as I could tell. It looks like a put-up suckers rally to me.
Further, we are trying to move the world this time, due to how late we are acting in a variety of arenas, not just Fed policy. Foreign policy, military action, foreign aid, trade agreements, all have been laggard.
After this little bounce where will we be? The Fed needs to take actual measures, little as it may suit their dignity to rush so. And then they may find they are pushing on a string in some of these countries for a while. E.g. Japan, where the Yen price complicates things short term.
Although I am optimistic long term because of all the reform movements, these things take a lot of time. You can't start late like this and expect immediately gratifying results.
Cheers,
Chaz |
