>>> Read the speech again. Greenspan indicated that the board has turned neutral. There are twelve board members and a casting vote.
I realize. And you are right, he has just come to neutral, in public. However, switching on a dime makes them seem a little less omniscient, so they never do it, even when called for. This would be the expected prefix to a rate drop announcement later.
There are inflation hawks there still, no doubt. Just like 1929. Hopefully, they will be overcome with facts. The debate this time is far more public. Whether in time is another question.
Bear trap? Most bad drops have been preceeded by a slow drop over a few weeks, then a drop, a big rebound, and then the bad news. In 1987, however, the rebound turned out to hold, and that was the beginning of the next bull market.
I can't tell which is happening here. We've had the few weeks slow drop, the bad drop, and the big rebound. Either scenario could be set. US fundamentals are still good, fundamentals elsewhere mainly suck. Looks like one of those non-linear situations.
Cheers,
Chaz |
