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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR)

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To: David Wise who wrote (8241)	9/8/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: Paul Winston	Read Replies (2) of 10479

..."It also occurs to me that the average initial investment for the 2 U.S. companies is about $275,000 each. I think this tells a couple of things: 1) the length of time under evaluation is very much justified when a company is spending this much for new, technology. They can't just check out another company's satisfaction based on experience, and 2) Osicom is for real." ... It should tell you the opposite. If everybody who purchases a few gigamuxes takes an 18-month evaluation, then Osicom is in some trouble. The average life-cycle for new networking hardware is about 3 years. This means that 3 years after a product is rolled out a company would often be better off purchasing some other (better) product. This could just be a successor to the current product, or it could be a product from another vendor. So, anybody starting to take a look at the Gigamux product today would probably be buying a new model gigamux or another vendor's product a couple of years from today. So, if Osicom starts selling additional Gigamuxes to current customers or sells some more Gigamuxes without an 18-month evaluation -- then THAT would be a very good sign. Frankly, it is not obvious that Osicom will be around to support current Gigamux sales. That makes new sales extremely difficult. I was more upbeat on Osicom a year or so ago than I am today... Paul.

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