Your arguments are good, but consider: "The average life-cycle for new networking hardware is about 3 years. ... This could just be a successor to the current product, or it could be a product from another vendor". >> Xin Chen and Osicom have not been standing still. Check out their web site and you'll see that they are well beyond first generation DWDM. In fact their last press release talks about this. Whereas AT&T cancelled plans with Ciena's 16 channel DWDM product, Osicom has had an available 32 channel and I think greater, for months.
Actually there are 2 points: 1) GigaMux is not an "average" hardware networking" product (but you're right as the technology has already moved beyond 1st gen) and, 2) Their customers could easily move up to Osicom's own advances in this technology.
"So, anybody starting to take a look at the Gigamux product today would probably be buying a new model gigamux or another vendor's product a couple of years from today." >> I hope Osicom's.
"So, if Osicom starts selling additional Gigamuxes to current customers or sells some more Gigamuxes without an 18-month evaluation -- then THAT would be a very good sign." >> I'm glad you think so, because the press release that should be out this week will most likely talk about additional sales to at least one customer, and they've already had at least 2 sales that did not require even half of the 18-month projected eval period (one in Europe and one of the 2 announced Friday in U.S.).
Osicom is also hoping that many more will now skip the full evaluation cycle and respond to referrals from NEC, FORE, or just their peers who have already purchased. They think this will happen because many are at capacity and losing potential business. They can run more fiber, or split the existing line at much lower cost (which I assume may not be true in every case, but in the case mentioned, it was 2 - 3 times more expensive to run new lines).
Question seems to be "how much longer before big profits", but not "will it happen".
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