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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ensco International Inc. (ESV)
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To: Gottfried who wrote (1454)9/9/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (1) of 2005
 
Gottfried, Its too bad there was no reason for the downward estimate revision. Oil stocks have something going for them that other sectors do not. Unpredictable events that remain unforseen till after the fact when they become obvious.

Regardless of the supply demand equation here are some of the factors that will affect these oil stock prices.
Iran, Iraq or some other wannabe mid east power begins testing medium range rockets.

Middle eatern pipeline problems (how long do you think it will take the international terrorist to figure out that destroying an oil platform would damage the US much more than the bombing of any US building)

The weather.

The perception of a shortage even if these is none. American's always have to have something to worry about.

OPEC might just come to terms with the over supply problem.

Political instability in the Middle East

After all is said and done (upgrades, downgrages) something will effect the price of oil. Its the history of the thing. Looking back a number of years, has there ever been a time when crude prices remained at a constant level for more than a few months at a time? When crude prices fall there is utter despair and analysts say things like "there is no fundamental reason for oil prices to rise" and when crude prices rise they say things like, " There is no reason to believe that we will ever see 12 dollar a barrel oil again" My suggestion is to ignore the analysts and pay attention to the history of the thing.

Good Luck to all.........Jerome
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