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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT)
HLIT 9.690+1.1%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: Hiram Walker who wrote (2498)9/9/1998 12:48:00 AM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (2) of 4134
 
I see little connection between ATHM's subscriptions and HLIT sales. DWDM isn't needed now nor is it applicable. When you have 30 million cable customers and overloaded backbones at scale, then you'll have demand for DWDM. It's overkill now and it could not be stably installed because of little operating history. You can't bring a new technology on stream in a brief time. If you could get any of those HLIT engineers to tell you the truth, they would say that a realistic development horizon for DWDM is 5 years. Even Lucent can't get too carried away about their great expectations for it. There are many problems that haven't been resolved and certainly haven't been resolved in scale. Then there are all those other technologies that are finally paying off for their operators. They have to run them for a few years just to get the amortization out of it. Those who go DWDM now will swallow huge costs and get little for it. They are pilot programs.

Back at the branch office HLIT can expect the same that has been happening for a year to persist. You haven't understood what I mean by the increase of losses from rapid growth of sales. This is a lose-lose situation and by the time the long term arrives, the world may have gone a completely different direction. That's the risk in superficial technology: obsolescence. I concede that INTC and MSFT are facing similar dilemmas. They don't have anything proprietary. They're just marketeers and their products are obsolescing.
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