Arik,
Looks like we're headed up to 1047 (Sep futures) before reversing back down. This upmove we're in appears to actually be wave 4 in the 5 wave series that began on 7/20:
Wave 1 ended on 8/17 at 1048
Wave 2 ended on 8/25 at 1110.5
Wave 3 ended on 9/1 at 936
Wave 4 in process targeting 1047 (notice how it targets near the end of wave 1).
Wave 1 was an extended wave, so we shouldn't be looking for extensions in waves 3 & 5. Wave 1 was 151 points & wave 3 was 174.50 points. Wave 5 should be the same size as wave 1, but it could truncate to as small as 75.5 pts, or it could overachieve and hold the same ratio to 3 as 3 did to 1, making it 202 pts. That's quite a range, ain't it?
Wave 1 lasted 19.5 trading days, and wave 3 lasted 5 trading days. Wave 5 should be relatively brief as well, but with a big punch!! I like the 895/6950 area as a likely place for wave 5 to terminate, but it's really difficult to pinpoint it this early.
So I'm looking for a run up to 1047 (based on swing target methodology from this morning's highs), probably by tomorrow, but no later than Thursday, followed by a hard decline into early next week that will take us at least back to the 970's, and more likely to something under 900 by early next week. How's that jive with your song and dance?
Regards,
David |
