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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: virgil vancleave who wrote (13557)9/9/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Ploni  Read Replies (3) of 18691
 
Yesterday I shorted:

Dendrite, DRTE, software to manage sales force, especially pharmaceutical; annual sales growth only 18%, yet P/E = 59, Price/sales = 6.2, P/book = 12.7, 52-week range = 7.375-25. The stock closed at 22 3/4.

TranSwitch, TXCC, some kind of semiconductors; annual sales growth only 38%, yet P/E = 119, P/sales = 8.7, P/book = 7.8, 52-week range = 6.81-20. The stock closed at 18.

VISX, VISX, laser for vision correction; annual sales growth -2%, annual earnings growth -19%, yet somehow P/E = 158, P/sales = 11.6, P/book = 7.2, 52-week range = 17.875-71. The stock closed at 56.

I shorted these in the morning, getting DRTE and TXCC almost where they ended up closing, but shorting VISX at 54, and thus "losing" 2 points by the close.

I think these may be good longer-term shorts, and haven't seen them mentioned too much. I found all of them by running a screen for high P/E, high P/sales, and high P/book.

(I also bought a long yesterday, 3DFX Interactive, TDFX, trading near its 52-week low, but gapping-up 10% on a series of news releases last Friday, including new games that support its product, and an agreement with AMD.)
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