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To: jbIII who wrote (1961)	9/9/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) of 2229

Clue: see post number How did you do that? BTW, ironically, the trade of McGwire to StLouis galvanized his ability to hit 62+(Oakland is a less friendly HR stadium). However, don't forget, the DH rule won't help McGwire...no DH in the National League. He plays 1st Base, which is probably the easiest on the body. However, aAt 35 he needs around 300HR to catch Aaron. That means he will have to make it into his 40s healthy and avg 40s to 50s per year for 5 to 8 years. Certainly do able, but not guaranteed. The odds on favorite for Aaron's record is Junior. Griffey will have around 350HR at the end of this year and thus will need 400HR to catch Aaron. That is around 100 HR MORE than Mac...but Junior is SIX YEARS YOUNGER than Mac. Now, he plays OF and that is harder on the body, but he also plays in the AL and can benefit from the DH. If Junior averages 37 HR for 11 years, he catches Aaron by the time he is 40; if he averages 40HR, he does it at 39. A much more doable task for Junior than Mac's. Remember, McGwire didn't even break into the league until he was 23 plus injuries cost McGwire a full three seasons! TG

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