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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 117.31

+2.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: divvie who wrote (64336)	9/9/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) of 176388

sure, I thought you were being just being flippant w/ your comments (as this thread is known to do w/ bears) so I didn't take your question seriously. Here's my rationale on DELL: ASP's will continue to fall and competition will squeeze DELL's margins even as demand falls. Asia and Russia (that means eastern Europe is soon to follow) are in a depression. Lain America is on their way. Europe and the US are slowing. When the US stock mkt falls, the US will enter a serious recession because so many of the public have such a large interest in the mkt (for instance: wouldn't you feel poor if DELL was cut in half in a couple weeks?) Thus, going forward DELL's growth is unsustainable and its stock price is also unsustainable. The current price of DELL assumes PC heaven will descend upon Earth and remain here for all eternity. I disagree. There is nothing wrong w/ DELL's business plan, at certain points in time stocks simply become wildly overvalued even though at the time is seems very rational (ie- analysts point to some growth rate and explain the price of the stock as rational becuase of the growth... they are of course making an assumption that such growth will continue forever.) Macoeconomics will bring DELL's stock price to its knees and DELL's business to its knees several months after that. If you want to know what I think about the mkt, check my earlier posts in my profile. -Lucretius BTW- along those same lines... I belive a mkt downdraft of ENORMOUS proportions is imminent, that's why I warned DELL bulls to bail. I was of course ignored and laughed at as I expected. If you actually were scared, I might have to change my bearish stance :)

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