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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (6286)9/9/1998 11:09:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
Free money almost!
Just borrow money from BOJ and invest it in u.s. treasuries/bonds at virtually no risk.


Virtually no risk? Hardly. What about currency risk? Say you borrow on thin margin and the yen rises just 10%, you are either wiped out or incur large losses.

So what is the cost to hedge away this currency risk? Well look at the futures markets. The distant yen contracts are selling at premiums to cash at the annual rate of, you got it, 5.1%. Add this to the quarter point you will pay to the Japanese bank and, surprise, surprise, you get pretty close to the rate on that U.S. Treasury. Ain't markets wonderful? Didn't a wise man once say that there was no such thing as a free lunch? I guess that applies to yen-denominated lunches too.

-Robert

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