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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 191.74-1.3%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: gbh who wrote (2737)9/9/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (4) of 12623
 
Boy, this has been sad to watch. I've got to say one thing though: that Washington Post article on Monday seemed to underscore my suspicions about CIEN, which is that they seem to be having substantial enough problems with their products to give people the jitters. The big telcos are used to stuff that works flawlessly, so things like smoking circuit boards raise real red flags. I think their problems are not just business-oriented, but that's just my opinion, and I also wonder how much the departure of David Huber hurt them technologically.

For what it's worth, CIEN is now trading basically at its offering price, a point I was fortunate enough to buy at and then get out at $46 at the first sign of trouble in February. That's probably the real lesson here: sell anything that's not a hugely dominant blue chip at the first sign of trouble, because it's usually just the tip of the iceberg. That's my one and only sell rule, and it's worked pretty well for me. Good luck to all.

Paul
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