JAPAN DOWNGRADES ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
The government downgraded its assessment of the economy Tuesday, and the head of the country's chief economic agency warned JAPAN STANDS AT THE BRINK OF A DANGEROUS DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL..
Taichi Sakaiya, director-general of Japan's Economic Planning Agency, said that while the economy has not yet fallen into a deflationary spiral in which prices sink lower and lower, "we are at the entrance of one". "We must take actions to prevent the economy from being sucked in," he said.
Sakaiya's remarks followed the release of the Economic Planning Agency's latest monthly report on the economy, which used the term "very severe" to describe the current situation - stronger language than the agency had used in the past.
The report cites a deterioration in key areas of the economy, noting sluggish housing starts and rising unemployment. Sakaiya said the Japanese economy could enter an "extremely dangerous" phase should the economic situation outside of Japan continue to worsen. He added, however, that Japan's hefty trade surplus and government stimulus spending will likely offset the negative impact of the global economy's woes.
Japan entered a recession in the first quarter of this year, but the government has been reluctant to acknowledge the economy has veered off the path to recovery until recently.
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In conclusion, the threat of deflation is very real in the world's second largest economy, which makes it a threat to the Asian region and the rest of the world. This kind of information can not be ignored by investors and must be factored into the investment making equation. Yesterday's global market rally was a clear over reaction to Alan Greenspan's comments regarding the possibility of lower interest rates, as well as, the post-labour day attempt by investors to forget the real economic problems plaguing the globe.
The fact is, global economic conditions have not changed and, as these comments from the Japanese evidence, they may be getting worse if not dealt with appropriately.
That is all for now.
Have a great day.
Regards, Agora.
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