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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 508.82+0.6%3:59 PM EST

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To: Alan Buckley who wrote (10627)9/9/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Rusty Johnson  Read Replies (1) of 74651
 
I think you make some good points.

Ed wanted five examples where Microsoft allegedly broke the law. I gave him more than five.

I agree that in the end Microsoft will not be hurt. The majority of people seem content enough with Windows. People either like Bill Gates or hate him. Convictions on antitrust won't change their opinions.

You can tell by the opinion pieces that people's minds are made up. No one is interested in the charges. Jason Pontin at Red Herring talks about monopolies, mergers and Staples/Office Depot. There is nothing illegal about monopolies. The case has nothing to do with monopolies or mergers. I'm just trying to point out that people writing editorials about Microsoft versus DOJ obviously haven't read the charges.

People either believe Microsoft is guilty as sin or that they can do no wrong. I just don't see what the punishment would be anyway. You can't take away market share. Would it be the end of the world to put the Netscape Navigator icon on the desktop? I don't see how breaking them up into operating systems and miscellaneous hurts them.

I think if Bill were smart he would work closely with companies in cooperation (win-win) instead of treating life like a game of Risk or Monopoly (win-destroy). If he were smart he'd avoid even the appearance of breaking the law. I believe he'd be even richer in the long run. But in this country if your rich ... you're smart. So in the United States he's smart after all.

It doesn't even matter to me how it comes out. The internet, Open Source Software (Linux and Apache), JAVA, Jini etc. pose bigger challenges to Microsoft than the DOJ in my opinion.

I plan on buying a 64 bit system (Alpha maybe) running Linux in the next few years. If I want to use Excel I'll run a Windows emulator. I happen to dislike the reliability of Windows. Linux spoils you. And for $29.95 people can install a commercial version on their hard drive to see for themselves whether or not they like it.

I find Bill Gates lacking as a human being but that doesn't mean Microsoft stock won't double from here. I think they are vulnerable on the operating system front (in the long run) but will make up for lost revenues with banking, the internet, media ... who knows? But I'm rambling off topic.

You hit the nail on the head when you said, "they just need to avoid a stunning defeat." And that is probably what will happen. In the end the people that love Microsoft and Bill Gates will still be in love. People that hate Bill Gates will still hate him.

It's an interesting soap opera but I don't think you have anything to worry about. When government lawyers can't convict OJ ...

Best of luck.
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