L3: I book-marked the TSO thread, because I think this thread has some of the best of SI. On occasion I post myself.
However, I do not trade options or futures. I simple take short, medium and long term long positions. In addition, I day trade taking both long and short positions. Since mid July, I went to cash expect for day trading positions only.
Now regarding IBM. I am not familiar with IBMUE's. Are you betting on an IBM decline?
The Dow Industrials is the most watched of all indices. At least by the general public. IBM is weighted the heaviest of all the Dow Industrial Stocks
Today's statement IBM was holding up the index was for today. IBM rose at times and toward the end of the day, while the majority of Dow Industrial stocks did the opposite. However, once IBM broke to the down side, the end of day direction was locked in.
MSFT was used exactly the same way today for the NASDAQ Comp.
The main stocks to watch intra day in the Dow Industrials are AXP, GE, IBM, JPM, MRK and UTX. You will get a feel how they are moved individually and at times, as groups, to camouflage market and index moves. And, to motivate selling and buying in the markets.
Watch DELL, MSFT, INTC, CSCO and WCOM for the same on the NASDAQ Comp.
To answer your question speaking in end of day numbers: I am frankly not sure with regards to IBM! My end of day MACDX OSC indicators gave a very short, a short and medium term sell signals on 8/27. Then yesterday 9/8, I got a very short-term buy. This type of mixed signals indicates a move up in a downtrend. (Unless further signals follow!)
IBM's 50 day SMA today is 123.84 and acted as resistance for the close. I see minor levels of support working down to strong support at the 200 day SMA. IBM's 200 day SMA for today was 111.74. However, because of the use of IBM as indicated above, I would be reluctant to take a day trade position in IBM, for now!
I still expect further decline in the Dow.
BWDIK
Regards,
LG
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