Ramsey,
Although, at times I find it hard to keep up, I truly enjoy your posts from the Land of the Rising Sun. I was wondering if you have you considered the impact of the aging Japanese population in your analysis?
If I remember correctly, Harry Dent stated that the Japanese are about 5+ years ahead of us with respect to baby boomer demographics. After driving the Nikkei to all time highs throughout the 70's and 80's, these folks are now retiring in a big way. Their equity investments are being or have been converted into retirement income streams. In addition to corporate reorgs, next generation management transitions, leader seeking bureaucratic governmentals, insolvent ATM's, and the charging of the wall street bulls this has to have a significant impact on the liquidity and direction of their economy.
In my mind, this is all short term happening and happened. Japan has truly crossed the bridge. Since the fifties, they've never had it as good as the current situation. Cost are cheap, very cheap, both labour and materials; export revenues are high due to dollar/yen; market and manufacture penetration is worldwide and the whole world is on the verge of a new technology base. All the necessary factors to drive their economy to even greater heights than before. Surely, they are not going bankrupt. I do agree, that their balance sheets are at low point, however, aren't their P&L's primed for blast off?
Again, I appreciate your posts on this subject. Your insights are helpful in understanding the ultimate end game. I sure don't want to be the last or even the median person off this bus.
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