Chase Manhattan (CMB) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Chase Manhattan (CMB)

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To: Logos who wrote (161)	9/10/1998 2:16:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 213

The higher wages are just another pressure on corporate profits. This recession will be led by the decline in corporate profits (already underway) and therefore investment and then layoffs. Plus a channel through stockprices. Plus the deflationary pressure from abroad and lower profits for US multinationals. None of the features you mention was present in 1929 in the US either and don't seem implicated in the Japanese slump. There is little reason to think that the coming US recession will be very severe. In all likelihood it might be very mild due to the lack of features you mention. Well I just wish I'd shorted Chase rather than just selling it at the top. Instead I bought puts on the National Australia Bank which is sofar not declined much in price at all. David

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