Global Intelligence Update
September 10, 1998
Turkey Attempts to Forge Bloc for Impending Cyprus Crisis
The long-simmering confrontation between Greece and Turkey over the Greek-
Cypriot government's acquisition of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles
appears once again ready to explode into crisis. Turkey has vowed to block
the October delivery of the missiles to the new airbase at Paphos -- by
military means if necessary. As the delivery date approaches, Turkey is
engaged in forging the alliances necessary to allow it to carry out
military action against the missiles.
Israeli Defense Forces Radio reported on September 7 that, during Turkish
Foreign Minister Ismail Cem's visit to Israel in July, Cem surprised
Israeli officials by asking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for political
and military assistance against the deployment of the Russian missiles to
Greek Cyprus. IDF radio correspondent Raviv Drucker reported that Turkish
Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz was expected, during his visit to Israel on
September 7 and 8, to repeat the request for Israeli support in the event
that Turkey and Greece go to war over Cyprus. However, according to
Drucker, Israeli Defense Ministry officials met twice last week and
secretly gamed out a Greek-Turkish-Cypriot war, after which they decided in
principle against Israeli assistance to Turkey.
Turkey and Israel, and in particular their militaries, have grown close
since signing a series of accords in 1996. Israel has reportedly already
been involved in preparing Turkey for air strikes against the missiles. A
NATO source was cited in August as confirming that the Israeli Air Force
had trained Turkish pilots for an air strike against Paphos, using a mockup
of the airbase derived from reconnaissance photos taken by Israeli aircraft
in April. Turkey has also reportedly purchased 100 "Popeye" air-to-ground
missiles from the Israelis.
The question is: What military assistance does Ankara expect from Israel if
the Cyprus conflict escalates into a general Greek-Turkish war? Certainly
Israel has little incentive to confront Greece, especially when it is
already caught up in the collapse of the Mid-East peace process. The
answer, drawing off Syria from assisting Greece against Turkey, is
confirmed by recent Turkish overtures to Jordan.
Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz visited Jordan on September 6 and 7,
where he met with Crown Prince Hasan and Prime Minister Fayiz al-Tarawinah.
During the visit, the two countries signed three military agreements,
covering modernization, maintenance, and exchange of expertise, as well as
agreements to increase cooperation in agriculture, trade, and culture.
However, Jordan's inclination toward a possible role in an expanded
Turkish-Israeli bloc remained ambiguous after the talks, with official
statements offering evidence in both directions.
In a joint press conference following their talks on September 6, Prince
Hasan stated that Jordan's concept for a comprehensive "new regional order"
did not imply the formation of any "new pacts or axes." However, the
Prince noted that he hoped "those of you... who are concerned with regional
alliances would look at Syria, look at Iraq, look at Iran, look at Greece,
and ask yourselves: These countries and many others, how many defense
agreements and how many bilateral relations have developed over the years
in terms of security?" For his part, Yilmaz insisted that Turkey's
bilateral military relationship with Israel was not directed against any
country in the region, and as such could not really be called an
"alliance." Tarawinah said that Turkey's relations with Israel were
something in which Jordan does not interfere.
On September 7, Jordanian Information Minister Nasir Judah said that Turkey
and Jordan had excellent relations, but in response to a question on
Jordan's policy on alliances, he said that Jordan "will never join any
alliances whose objective is against any Arab country." On the other hand,
Judah did confirm that Turkey and Jordan would carry out joint military
training as "friendly and sisterly countries." A Turkish diplomatic
source, cited in the London-based newspaper "Al-Hayat," said that Jordan
and Turkey will take part in joint military exercises in Jordan next
spring, that Turkish officers would take part in Jordanian exercises later
next year, and that Jordan had been invited to participate in Turkish-
Israeli exercises in Turkey in November.
Israel, too, has apparently been involved in trying to recruit Jordan into
the Israeli-Turkish camp. During Yilmaz' visit to Israel, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for a joint regional security system
with Turkey. Netanyahu reportedly said he also hoped Jordan would take
part in the system. The Israeli proposal and Israel's military cooperation
with Turkey were denounced by Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq as threats to
Arab interests. The Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" reported on September 8
that Israel and Turkey plan to hold naval search and rescue exercises in
the eastern Mediterranean later this year, and that they plan to invite
Jordan and Egypt to participate. Jordan attended previous Israeli-Turkish
naval exercises as an observer. Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa
warned against inviting Egypt to take part in the naval exercises, calling
them ill-timed and apparently anti-Arab in light of the collapsed Mid-East
peace process.
Turkey is clearly more ready to strike at the S-300 missiles in Cyprus than
many would like to believe. However, such a strike runs a serious risk of
drawing Turkey into a war with Greece. And Greece has been as active in
alliance-building as has Turkey, courting the Russians and Syrians, among
others. Therefore, if Turkey attacks Cyprus, it has the possibility of
facing a two-front war against Greece and Syria. To counter this, Turkey
has attempted to enlist the support of Israel in keeping the Syrians
occupied. Israeli war games ruled out that scenario -- unless perhaps
Jordan could also be enlisted.
Outside of this Turkish-Greek-Syrian war scenario, appeals from Turkey and
Israel for Jordan to join them in a security bloc make little sense.
Jordan has nothing to gain from allying militarily with Israel. Such an
alliance would only make Jordan a pariah among Arab states, and with King
Hussein suffering from cancer, it would add to Jordanian domestic
instability as well. From a defensive standpoint, the alliance would be
lopsided anyway, with Jordan amounting to little more than a speed-bump on
the way to Jerusalem.
Geographically, militarily, and politically, a Jordanian-Israeli-Turkish
alliance points only at containing Syria. And even in this context, Jordan
appears to be considering the idea. The Israeli newspaper "Maariv"
reported on September 8 that the head of Jordan's Intelligence Service,
Samir Battikhi, held secret meetings with senior intelligence and political
officials in Israel on September 6 to discuss, among other things, the
formation of a Turkey-Israel-Jordan axis.
This still leaves a number of wild cards in the region. Jordan would not
even contemplate joining this alliance without at least tacit Iraqi
approval. Jordan is too economically tied to Iraq. So Ankara must have
reached a deal with Baghdad, perhaps on oil smuggling, the Kurds, or the
security of Saddam Hussein. Iran remains a wild card, though it has Iraq
and Afghanistan to worry about. Egypt, too, remains a wild card.
But the one to watch is Russia. Russia has several excuses and reasons to
come to Greece's aid. If the Russian missiles come with Russian technical
experts, and all are bombed together, Russia would have reason to
retaliate. The Russian navy could also intervene in a Turkish-Greek war on
the grounds that it was securing the Bosporus for free international
commercial transit. By intervening, Russia would reassert itself an a
regional power in the Black Sea, the Aegean, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
This would, to some degree, help strengthen its hold on the Caucasus,
Ukraine, and Moldova. Russian intervention would further complicate a
situation in which two NATO members were at war. It would strengthen
Russia's relations with Greece, giving further leverage to its policies in
the Balkans. And it would strengthen Russia's alliances among Arab states
by taking on Turkey, and by extension its Israeli ally.
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