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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: craig crawford who wrote (13578)9/10/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: CMason  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
From ALTIF's S/3:

Alternative Technologies. There can be no assurance that the centrifugal jig process will prove superior, either technically or commercially, to alternative technologies. Various mineral processing technologies perform many functions similar or identical to those for which the CJ is designed. Minerals processing technologies are generally predicated on the physical and chemical characteristics of the materials being processed. Contrasts in size, specific gravity, hardness, magnetic susceptibility, and electrical conductivity are physical characteristics that the processor exploits to selectively extract and concentrate mineral constituents. Variations in chemical reactivity and molecular affinity are also used to selectively segregate feed components.

The CJ competes in an arena in which particle specific gravity is the primary criteria for particle segregation and capture. Competing technologies in this arena include spiral and cones, froth flotation processes, and heavy media separation processes. Spirals and cones are mechanical gravity separation devices commercially used in the recovery of heavy minerals from sand-sized feeds and are most effective when feed sizes are larger than 150 mesh. Froth floatation is a minerals beneficiation process used to selectively separate sulfide particles by introducing chemical agents which attach to certain sulfides; once attached, the sulfides are separated by floatation. This method may be effective on particles as small as 200 mesh. Heavy media separation is a process in which a feed containing both dense and light particles is fed into
solution whose specific gravity is midway between the particles to be separated.

The light particles float to the surface of the solution, while the heavy particles sink. Heavy media separation is effective primarily in the removal of ash from coal and in small scale analytic laboratory applications. The Company believes that, in certain applications, the CJ may prove more efficient, cost effective, or adaptable than the spirals and cones, froth flotation devices, or heavy media separation devices. Nevertheless, results from further tests or actual operations may reveal that these alternative technologies may prove better adapted to any or all of the uses for which the CJ is intended. Moreover, regardless of test results, consumers may view any or all of such alternative technologies as technically superior to, or more cost effective than, the CJ.

Competing Products. The Company believes that the CJ currently faces several forms of competition in the commercial segregation of dense particles contained in feeds between 150 and 400 mesh, including the Kelsey Jig and the Knelsen batch concentrator unit, which are currently being used worldwide. As of mid-1995, according to the Kelsey jig's manufacturer, Geologics Pty. Ltd., 36 Kelsey jigs were in service at 28 sites worldwide, including two machines at one site in the United States. Knelsen units have been installed in various mining applications, primarily gold, throughout the world. There is no assurance that competitors, many of whom may have significant capital and resources, will not develop, or are not now in the process of developing, superior or less expensive alternatives to the CJ.


Obviously, these "risk factor" statements are written by lawyers, and couched in language to cover their tails in the event of a shareholder lawsuit. It's clear, however, that ALTIF is not saying in their SEC filings (unlike their press releases) that the CJ is definitely better than competing technologies. It seems improbable that, if the CJ were truly a better technology, ALTIF would have been able to acquire it at the bargain basement price they paid. Also, 7 people and a shoestring R&D budget aren't likely to produce major technical breakthroughs.

Regards,

CMason
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