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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (635)	9/10/1998 11:01:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

z that is a scenario that I have been thinking about for several days now. 1. I suspect the Congress would recognize the tremendous damage this would do the country. If they really have hard, impeachable evidence on Gore I suspect we would not have such info for at least a year so there would be little time left in the term. I would not be surprised if under such circumstance a bi-partisan group of senior legislators would have a meeting with Gore and lay ut the following scenario. We have the evidence and you are in trouble, but the country can not withstand the trauma of having another President forced out so quickly. They would therefore agree to allow him to serve out the term but he could not stand for re-election or they would proceed with impeachnent. This is of course making the big assumption that Gore did something wrong. I am just following your scenario. 2. As I said above I believe it could be accomplished with in a year but they may intentionally drag their feet so that it wraps up with any prosecution after the next election, in order to save the country from the trauma. 3. Yes Gingrinch would be next in line. But there will be a considerable time delay between the two so Gore would have an opportunity to appoint a Vice President who would then step ahead of Gingrich in line. 4. I believe the Republican leadership is very concerned about a public backlash if they give the slightest appearance of pursuing this for partisan reasons. I believe the leadership will try to keep the troops in line. 5. I believe the market is discounting Clinton's prospects and it will not cause long term market dislocations. The Gore scenario is however something that very few market participants are focused on, I took an informal poll yesterday. If Gore also has difficulties I believe there will be a lot of concerns about the ability of American leadership to respond to market turmoil and that could be a problem for the markets. Henry

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