Jay & Alex:
On the general market situation,
--Asia (essentially exporting deflation to the rest of the world, first from Japan to non-Japanese Asia, now to Latin America which sells raw material and food stuffs to Asia which they aren't buying and our export companies, for example, capital equipment) is a real problem with 1929 style deflationary implications.
--Earnings, US earnings have been dropping and forward-looking estimates have been going down
--Falling Interest rates, which everyone has been conditioned to believe will support the market, have been falling as professionals decide the economic horizon has too much smog and they can get a better return off bonds-in other words, deteriorating fundamentals in a high priced equity market is pushing money into the bond market, NOT falling rates supporting the equity market. At the bottom after 1929, US rates were about 1-1/2 percent, roughly the range of the current Japanese rates.
--Clinton with just additional uncertainty. I'm inclined to think he won't resign and won't be impeached (you have to lose your own party to be impeached), but it's just uncertainty. After all, Wall Street is neither Democrat nor Republican but Capitalist and the economic issues are more important.
As for AOL in this environment, AOL's lack of Asian exposure is a big plus, their pie-in-the-sky valuation and big minus. Without news, AOL usually trades more or less like the general market but with wider swings. Technically, AOL is currently in an intermediate downtrend and if it breaks below about 80, it has a big problem. (BTW & FYI I play both directions with AOL using options-calls Tuesday, puts yesterday so I don't really care which direction I goes as long I get it right more often than not).
Anyway, interesting discussion, the general impact of current market conditions on AOL
Best,
--Steve
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