This will keep happening. There will be a consensus that there is no hurry to get back in. Buy and even sell side analysts will counsel get to the sidelines until financing for the $400m shortfall is identified, and equity dilution excluded. There will be comments about the loss of any cushion in the now current plan. I.e., what happens if some more rockets blow up? There will be a general feeling that until at a minimum there are a couple of successful launches at the slower 4 per pace, and demand is further proved out by I* results, that there is no hurry.
Meanwhile, all signs are that I* is having a very bad start. Maybe the system just isn't working as designed with space handoffs. Whatever the truth turns out to eventually be, I really doubt we've hit the nader of expectations about I*. And with its cost structure, I really wonder about demand, outside the US military and perhaps some press, etc. Anyway, I see more down that up near term.
Which is why I blew out at 11.50. I'll get back in, but figure I've got a while.
Heck, it might rally to 13 or so. Probably will. Also might go down to $7-9. Probably will. I'm pretty darn sure I'll get a chance to get back in at least as good as I got out. The history of disasters like this with other stocks is they don't finish going down the first day. They may or may not rally over the next few, but they nearly always go down substantially more a bit later.
And hey, no capital gains this time to worry about. (Sold a couple of weeks ago, but then bought back in Friday, for the successful launch. :( )
Doug |
