Yes, for some companies what you say is certainly true. For DD companies, though, it is less--much less--true, especially now. SEG used to be able to manage their earnings somewhat when they had the dominant share in the high end and their competition was sparse and not very aggressive. But they have more aggressive competition there now, plus the OEMs are playing the DD companies off one another very astutely. No one except perhaps EMC is single sourced now, and maybe not even them. And because orders, especially larger ones, tend to be backend loaded to capture as much of the falling ASPs as possible, it just isn't credible to me that anyone "knows" with any real certainty at this point how the quarter will actually shape up.
All that said, I am long SEG, and certainly hope that you are correct. It may well be that they had a decent August, but a decent or even a good August does not at all necessarily make a good Sept. quarter.
Regards,
s. |
