Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room Message Board

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Non-Tech : Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room

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To: wolfdog2 who wrote (391)	9/10/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein	Read Replies (2) of 638

Shorting AMAT... Man o man, I need to change the "charter" for my SI forum. I originally said no short picks, but the environment has changed so radically that I am forced to buy puts to protect myself on downside. I have become very negative about semiconductor capital equipment makers. I have heard that Asian orders have fallen from billions of dollars last year to....zero. This is consistent with reports in other heavy equipment industry, such as Harnischfeger (sp). 600 million in sales last year, ZERO in 1998. And that doesn't factor in stopped payments from past equipment sales. Asia has overcapacity. Why the hell do they need more AMAT stuff? Other short candiates include EGLAS. If you ahvene't already, get out of CDO. They lease AMAT stuff to Asia. CDO would suffer big time if Asian PC epople defaulted on lease payments. It would be a disaster. I'm not saying it is oging to happen, but it has gomne from an improbability to a possibility. If you want to hang on to CDO, I urge you to sell calls against your common. DocStone

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