Kevin,
I can tell you've never handicapped thoroughbreds for a living.
His comments about speed horses are correct. In high stakes races, the horse(s) with the fastest times are not necessarily the best bet(s) in the race. In high stakes races, you always look at the class of horses (or the quality of competition) that the horse you're handicapping has recently faced. There is an old racing axiom that "class overcomes speed, always". And it's true often enough to make believers of most handicappers. You go with speed when you're handicapping low priced claiming races or maiden races, but keep a wary eye out for a stable trying to slip a ringer into a cheap race just to get some easy purse monies. In his analogy, class horses usually equate with higher winnings (more money). Hence, "follow the money", another old handicapping axiom, which basically means don't ignore the horse(s) that have been winning the larger purses, because these horses know how to win (hence, "money follows money").
I also think he's referring to the old gambling axiom of "don't chase your own money", meaning if you're having a bad day gambling, don't start betting (usually making more bad wagers) in an attempt to break even for the day. Usually, you end up making a bad day worse.
KJC |
