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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Link Lady who wrote (16366)	9/10/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 18056

Wendy, for a 1930 style depression, we need to have aggregate demand contaction, and severe one (I think at the worst point it was greater than 20% contraction, but Joseph knows the period better). I just do not see such a contraction in the Nouveau Capitalism of today, where wealth redistribution creates a safety net assuring at all time minimum sustained aggregate demand. Of course, if we had a contraction of 5%, the markets might very well feel like a depression, but I do not think we that in the cards either. Frankly, on this down turn, I have a feeling we are 2/3 of the way down and because of the combination of the international uncertainties and the domestic cloudy political environment, we might go the last third before the end of October. Zeev

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