Michael, I respectfully disagree with a few of your points.
I think OEM will have some OEM wins, probably all they can produce.
No. TSMC has quite a bit of capacity, certainly more than 3dfx is likely to challenge in the near future.
While 3dfx's reputation in the 3D world is second to none, the banshee is their first real attempt at a 2D-3D card.
No. Was the Rush was a "fake" attempt?
Without a track record in the area, OEM's would be foolish to give a contract to an unproven design, by a company new to the field.
No. RIVA 128.
Once the design is proven, 3dfx will have no trouble selling Banshee
Can you define the criteria to met for a design to be "proven"?
Note that many of the OEM's are still buying yesterday's chipsets, not products from the current generation.
No. That's because of falling PC ASPs, not because OEMs exhibit "component inertia".
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