I am starting to concur. I wrote a novel length e-mail to my investing group last night on how bad the fundamentals are out there and why we shouldn't expect a resumption of the bull anytime soon until we saw certain things accomplished for example A/D improvement, new lows under 100 and only the stocks with real earnings growth climbing while the ones with voodoo accounting continued to separate from the pack. Today I didn't see any of those yet I see dojis, hammers, abandoned babies that could become morning stars tomorrow (DELL, CSCO, KEA and a huge hammer on IBM), rising cycles on quote.com set at a high number ( enter spx.x,200) and look at the climbing trendline etc. I see a high probability that we could test 1040 on the S&P before the BK hits. As you pointed out, AOL up, MU eaked out a small gain etc. Mean while, copmpanies with real earnings growth all fell.
Now my dilemma, do I trade the chart or my gut and common sense based on FA? I am half tempted to pick up some calls on any dip tomorrow but hate to hold anything over the weekend. Still I am starting to think we could have a serious run up and then rollover Wednesday. No real reason other than a few home made indicators etc but I think the BK day will be between 21-30 Sept. The cycles are heightening and I think it may finally break at the end of the month. Everyone expects it later or now. I believe if they push us up, people will start to drop their guard and one day it will just be lower, a whole lot lower. A slower climb lasting over a week would put people at ease and catch them dipping.
I noticed despite heavy volume on the exchanges, that volume was lower on many of the stocks I track. If it weren't for the Starr report hanging in the air this weekend, I would make one last plunge on the long side so I would have some extra cash for puts starting mid week next week. I may try a quick day trade tomorrow since I think they may try to run it up to ensure an up week for the sheeple to see on the news this weekend.
Good Luck |
