Roy; RE:" abandoned baby ? "
>...significance on the nasty looking doji on SPY ?
please clarify your time-slice for me, Roy -
The SPY,W weekly chart (to date) shows a Harami Yose Sen or "Harami Cross" - the week (so far) 'closing' near where it 'opened', forming a doji as the "cross", set against or "crossing" the long red (decline) candle from last week.
The cash SPX.X weekly (to date) shows a figure resembling an inverted hammer, also forming a "Harami" reversal pattern against the previous week's long red candlestick; of course, the actual week is not yet completed, FWIW. In other words: the market tried to climb up the mountain it fell down last week, but it got clobbered the first time it tried to do so: either a great buying op or, look out, below !
Gimme a Long Straddle, man - it can't lose ;-)
The SPY,D daily chart on quote.com shows a gap-down spinner, with a (small) body; But my Reuters reference charts show a wicked looking doji - and I assume you are referring to this daily 'stick. Note that SPY, and the futures, trade for at least 15 minutes after the 4.00 EST cash market closing. I believe that the futures continued to rise just after the close, so that's why our reference charts show a closing price closer to the open, so - a doji.
Convert your candlestick chart to a simple line chart of closing prices, Roy - and you will see that the close on today's doji is roughly right-on an UpTrend Line drawn from the AUG-31 and SEP-04 closing prices.
My Edwards & Magee reference says that Bear Markets often have these little UpTrends with waves bouncing along a trend - then they just plunge instead of bounce and seek some new level down below. This is the second such "trading range" that the market has tried to establish. I hate it when they plunge, because I'm usually covering shorts (or taking a long position) at the bottom of the wave, right? - then the bitch just fails, and I'm either flat or worse - holding something. I got caught at 106 long, having just flipped, the last time it failed, I'm man enough to admit :-/
Like walking a tightrope, down here; but the rallies can be explosive in a BearMarket, too... exits are easier, because you can see the top of the channel coming.
Just the opposite of BullMarkets where, IMHO - entries are easy but, exits require real finesse.
Anyhoo {grin} you know, man - you get a positive futures before the open, and you got a morning star or, "abandonded baby", yeah.
nice chattin' with ya
-Steve |
