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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 182.87

-3.5%

Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Asymmetric who wrote (2887)	9/11/1998 3:13:00 AM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (3) of 12623

Which is why Tlab will be forced by its Shareholders to renegotiate. Again. The market is speaking. Loudly. These days stock buyout premiums tend to be about 20% over market, perhaps 30%. You have to figure that even now Cien is trading with some faint hope, at least, of deal completion. I.e., with some deal premium already in it's price. Ergo it would fall even further if the deal was definitely off. Right now on completion at the .8 ratio it would be up 120% plus. No way that flies. Tlab shareholders won't vote for it. The deal will either be renegotiated at a .5 ratio (which still would generate an exceedingly generous almost 40% premium), or less. Of course the higher the ratio, the more Tlab will get hurt on re-announcement of a revised deal, so its almost counter productive for Cien to hope for too much. The company that is stinking up the joint is Cien. At the right price, Cien could add to Tlab long term. Cien NEEDS Tlab. I used to be long Tlab some while ago. Cien and the market scared me away. Along with a lot of other people. Doug

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