Paul, if we all had crystal balls that two years ago to the day were able to forecast two years in the future, I think we can all agree that we'd have sold at the two year high. I mean, how many of us now think those two year highs will ever be reached again? Oh sure, there's still hope that might happen. But if given the choice to sell now at the two year high and forever be banned from owning that stock, or waiting for an even higher price, which would you choose?
In order to get back to the lofty levels of yesteryear, it will take more than just fundamentals. It will take some sort of emotional response on the part of the stock-buying public to allow the MMs to take those investors to the cleaners, i.e. keep raising the price as high as they can until the emotionally charged buying stops. At that point, we all sell. Perhaps we might buy back later if really like the companies we've chosen, perhaps not.
So, sad to say, if we're all going to make a killing on Y2K stocks it's going to have to be because of an emotional response on the part of investors to Y2K. But, lucky for us, Y2K really is a problem and really will pack an emotional punch, IMO. So, I guess what it boils down to is if you're investing in Y2K stocks based on fundamentals, you're probably spending too much time in the wrong sector. If you're looking for an emotional roller-coaster ride, then grab the barf-bag and hop in.
- Jeff |
