All,
What might be the affects on INVX of this development?
IBM Seeks Markets For Tiny Disk Drive
( 9/ 9/98; 5:00 PM EST)
By Terry Costlow, EE Times
Industry observers were unanimously impressed with IBM's 1-inch disk drive -- only 5.5 millimeters tall -- to be unveiled next summer by the company's Storage Systems Division. But most were uncertain of when the targeted portable markets for this type of product will take off.
Digital cameras are a primary market for the unit, a fact underscored by IBM's decision to debut the drive at the Photokina show in Cologne, Germany, on Sept. 16. The unit is also aimed at handheld computers, global positioning systems, and other markets with severe size limitations. The technology has impressed most who have seen previews.
"This is very impressive. It's great stuff to see technology reduced to this size," said Jim Porter, president of Disk/Trend, in Mountain View, Calif. "The immediate market impact will depend on how quickly IBM finds the markets it talks about in theory. One technical specification that's missing is the most important factor of all: price."
One factor for the drive's eventual acceptance is the availability of Type II CompactFlash connectors on cameras and other products. The Type II form factor, specifications for which were completed only last year, provides the 5.5-mm height needed for disk drives and other peripherals that won't fit in the 3.3-mm high Type I slot used on some digital cameras and other portable products.
"As of today, there are no digital cameras with Type II slots, but I anticipate that will change this year, and change to a greater extent next year," said Steve Hoffenberg, digital photography analyst at Lyra Research, in Newtonville, Mass. "There's no downside to adding it -- it just takes up a couple more millimeters. You don't really lose anything, and you gain the extra capability."
Questions remain over the drive's acceptance in the mainstream digital camera market. IBM said Canon, Hitachi, Hewlett-Packard, and Minolta are evaluating the device, though none have committed to using it. Most observers said they feel the microdrive may only be used in expensive cameras.
"The people who buy a $400 digital camera aren't going to spend $200 or even $100 on a disk drive," said Ron Glaz, digital camera analyst at International Data Corp. (IDC), in Framingham, Mass. "It will be mostly the professionals and near-professionals who need the capacity it offers."
The average digital camera shipping today uses an 8-megabyte flash card, Glaz said. U.S. shipments of digital cameras will rise from about 1 million in 1997 to 11 million in 2002, and the professional segment will consume only about 58,000 units in 2002, Glaz said.
The drive's adoption for handheld computers has also raised questions. That market may be a bit more in the long term, said Diana Hwang, analyst for handheld products at IDC. "When you think about how much handhelds cost -- $350 to $450 -- a $200 drive will be 50 percent of the cost. The drive will find a niche. It's not a mainstream technology just yet," she said.
Although the microdrive may not find a single significant market over the next couple years, it may find enough niche markets to be successful. "IBM is gambling that some of the application areas will blossom," Porter said. "That's a reasonably good bet because they are looking at a lot of markets."
Initially disclosed earlier this year, the microdrive is far smaller than anything else on the commercial market, and will fit the CompactFlash form factor. Measuring 1.68-by-1.43-by-0.19 inches, the one-platter drive weighs 20 grams, or 0.7 ounces, and holds up to 340 MB.
A second version of the drive uses only one side of the disk to store 170 MB, thus reducing costs by eliminating one head. To reduce the likelihood of failures because of head crashes, the drive uses a ramp load/unload technique in which the heads are parked away from the media when the drive is inactive.
The drive uses giant magnetoresistive (GMR) head technology. Although GMR heads are used exclusively in leading-edge drives today, IBM said the microdrive has plenty of room for future growth.
"The areal density of this drive is just over 3 gigabits per square inch, and our 2.5-inch drives are at 4 gigabits per square inch," said David McIntyre, at IBM's Storage Systems Division. "This is a relatively conservative design."
McIntyre downplayed comparisons between the IBM drive and Hewlett-Packard's 1.3-inch drive, which was killed in 1994 after a fruitless two-year marketing effort.
"The market has changed a lot since then," he said. "Digital cameras weren't around then, and handhelds are real products now. That [HP] drive only held 40 MB, and we're at 340."
Armonk, N.Y.-based IBM didn't provide pricing or detail specifics. Observers said they guessed it will sell for roughly $200 when it's formally introduced next summer. |
