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Strategies & Market Trends : Position Trading Forum
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To: Tim Luke who wrote (1460)9/11/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Twiford  Read Replies (1) of 7247
 
All:

I'm not sure that Clinton will resign or be impeached. Clinton is too proud and concerned about how history will view him for him to resign. He believes that he can still save his place in history. He values his ability to be the "comeback kid" too much to quit.

The Republicans have a good motive to keep Clinton in office. The best political view for the Republicians would be to keep him broken and bloody thru November elections. Following November, impeachment would put Gore in office. That is not appealing to anyone other than hard core Democrats. (Not because they like Gore, but it would mean that Gore would run as an incumbent in 2000). For the Democrats, that would be better than his running as Vice-Prez. The Republicans had rather Gore run as Vice-Prez rather than as an incumbent. Also, Clinton will be hamstrung for the remainder of his term and the Republicans will have control of Congress. Not a bad place for them to be. (politically speaking)

Starr's report could trash all of this. If his report is too severe, the Republicans will be forced to begin impeachment. However, this will be delayed until after November. As for the long-term markets, I feel that the worst possible course would be the "broken, bloody Prez" trying to lead for the next 2 years. Rash proposals could arise from Clinton (or worst - Hillary), trying to look Presidential. A long, slow death to the markets. I hope the market has discounted a large portion of this.

S~
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