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Strategies & Market Trends : SPARKY'S CORNER

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To: James R.Gross who wrote (3621)9/11/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: Bruce A. Brotnov  Read Replies (3) of 4142
 
Jim, I went back 30 years on Telescan chart and the best I can interpret on the small scale were on this order. I am assuming Nixon was impeached in late summer of 74 (in line with comment last night on CNBC that market continued to slide until Dec 74, but it went until Oct 75 and then had a sharp rebound. Here is data:
Sep 74: 860 (Market had been near 1000 in summer and had a big drop
in Sep (to 800 and closed at 860 - impeachment date?)
Dec 74: 800
Feb 75: 772
Apr 75: 570
Oct 75: 590 Which is about 31% drop, I don't know what happens if a Democrat were to be impeached. <G> If we used 8000 and 31% drop that would be 5440.

As far as small stocks, you really need to follow the M (of CANSLIM) or essentially buying mood of the market. The best valued small stocks go nowhere if the market is scared and doing more selling than buying. I have followed HKID for about a year or so and it has been in the rut with most of the small caps. If we get through this mess and especially bounce off 7400 one more time, we have more hope for the small caps. Many stocks with great values are beaten down right now and once buying "starts" then we can make some money. I am mostly in cash right now and I have been 90% invested for several years, but this year has caused be to swallow my pride and put more in cash until the market is a bit more friendly.
I'll take a look at ALMI in the mean time. I pick up on small stocks as long as they produce good earnings and revenues. My most recent success with a little one was IFCI @ 2.40 in June 97 when it came in with a good report and hit an 8 (rare for any stock under $5) on Poormans rating scale. It should be 8-10 area right now, but for the current market situation.
Bruce
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