Thanks, I assume you do it in a duration adjusted ratio, like long 5 munis to short 4 treas., or am I getting to close to your proprietary baliwik? :) BTW, the market better stop worrying about tiporillogate and start reading the real news. Tim
N ot since the break-up of the Soviet Union has Central Asia trodden on
such dangerous ground. Iran, with 70,000 troops in place along its border,
is poised to invade Afghanistan unless the Taliban--the Islamic revivalist
movement that has captured most of that country--turns over 10 diplomats
Iran has accused it of kidnapping.
The confrontation pits two branches of Islam--the Sunni Muslim Taliban
and Shia Iran--and a complex web of international alliances and ethnic
divisions that have formed around the protagonists. The Taliban is backed
by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and reviled by Russia and the Central Asian
states. How the stand-off plays out could have a profound impact across
the region.
Adding to the instability are the aftershocks of the August 18 American
cruise-missile attack on presumed terrorist training camps in
Taliban-controlled areas of Afghanistan. Amid fears of reprisals, Western
investment in oil and gas projects--crucial to the fragile economies of
Central Asia--has begun to dry up. The attacks have also stoked
anti-American feeling and Islamic fundamentalism, an increasing threat to
the stability of governments in the region.
The U.S. strike has led Pakistan, which like Saudi Arabia is a traditional ally
of the U.S., to wonder if the Americans have suddenly switched sides. The
targeted camps were believed to be used by Saudi fundamentalist Osama
bin Laden, whom the U.S. holds responsible for attacks on its embassies in
Kenya and Tanzania. But the strike marked the first time that U.S. forces
have acted against Sunni Islamic fundamentalism, rather than its old
enemy, Shia extremism, represented by Iran.
As a result of the strike, America--previously a tacit supporter of the
Taliban--is seen as siding with the forces arrayed against the Taliban,
including Russia, the Central Asian states, and, ironically, former arch-foe
Iran. This has led to an upsurge in domestic fundamentalism and heavy
pressure on U.S. allies to take an anti-American stance.
Washington's two strategic partners in the Sunni Muslim world--Pakistan
and Saudi Arabia--find themselves isolated in the region and in
contradiction with Washington over their support for the Taliban. "The
entire region is seeing a major reshuffle of alliances and interests," says a
former Pakistani foreign minister. "Everyone will lose by this U.S. action,
but Pakistan has lost the most."
Even before the Iranian diplomats went missing on August 9, tension
between Iran and Afghanistan was nearing fever pitch. Since July, the
Taliban has captured one city after the next in the Iran-backed area of
northern Afghanistan. The Taliban's successes appear to have
emboldened bin Laden, who stepped up his "war" against the U.S. in
August.
Neighbouring countries charge that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are largely
responsible for the Taliban's advance. "The Taliban's military successes
are only possible because of the active involvement of Pakistan's army
units and air force," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Pastukhov
said on August 13. Western and Asian diplomats allege that the Taliban
receives funding and technical help from Pakistan, home to millions of
Sunni-Muslim refugees from Afghanistan. Pakistan denies aiding the
Taliban.
Within Iran, there have been conflicting indications as to whether an
invasion of Afghanistan is imminent. Maj.-Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi,
commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, said on September 3 his
country won't tolerate "the open or secret interference of foreign powers in
its neighbouring countries." The Taliban reply was equally belligerent. "If
Iran attacks, the flames of war will cover Iran and its rulers will suffer from
its grave consequences," said a spokesman.
Iran's spiritual guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has played down the
possibility of conflict. But, in another bit of irony, the U.S. missile launch
has given any invasion by Iran a sort of convenient legitimacy: On
September 5, borrowing the argument used by Washington when it
launched its missiles, Iran said that under international law and the United
Nations' Charter it has the right to take "all necessary action" to defend
itself.
If the Iranian diplomats are not found and released, the most likely scenario
is that Teheran would arm the thousands of anti-Taliban Afghan fighters
who have taken refuge in Iran. This army could then attempt to form an
anti-Taliban stronghold along the border by recapturing Herat, a city in
western Afghanistan. From there, Iran could try to extend the corridor to
Bamiyan--home to Shia Muslims of an ethnic-Afghan minority called
Hazara and one of the only important remaining centres of anti-Taliban
resistance in Afghanistan.
Although the Taliban has officially denied the kidnappings, Pakistan
claims it is doing its utmost to free Iran's diplomats. Nevertheless, Teheran
has accused Islamabad of being insincere and Iran-Pakistan relations have
sunk to a new low. UN sources in New York say Iran informed UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan that it suspects Pakistani and Arab
extremists fighting alongside the Taliban captured the diplomats and killed
them.
Beyond the issue of returning lost diplomats, though, Iran may want
retribution for Hazaras killed by the Taliban on August 9 when it captured
the northern anti-Taliban stronghold of Mazar-e-Sharif. The area had been
held by Uzbek and Shia Hazara forces of the anti-Taliban alliance.
According to Amnesty International and UN sources, the Taliban
massacred more than 2,000 Hazaras there.
Fearing guerrilla attacks, a flood of asylum-seeking Afghan refugees and
internal Islamic insurgency, Central Asian countries have begun to take
precautions. The foreign and defence ministers of Kazakhstan, Kirgyzstan,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan met Russian officials on August 25 to coordinate
a joint military and political plan to keep the Taliban from advancing into
other territories. All these states still recognize the anti-Taliban alliance as
the official government of Afghanistan.
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have put their armies on maximum alert and
closed their borders. Moscow has sent additional troops to Central Asian
countries that border Afghanistan. Russia and the Central Asian states
have also begun a major joint air exercise to protect their common airspace
against possible Taliban air incursions.
In Tajikistan, a fragile UN-brokered peace between the government and the
Islamic opposition appears to be breaking down after less than a year. The
pact, which ended a five-year civil war, started crumbling after four UN
staff were killed in July and the UN peacekeeping mission reduced its
presence. Again, neighbours blame Pakistan: The Uzbek and Tajik
presidents refused to meet a high-ranking Pakistani envoy sent to appease
them, and on August 25 Tajikistan deported four Pakistanis for distributing
pro-Taliban literature at mosques in the capital Dushanbe.
Russia has enough to contend with in quelling Islamic fundamentalism in
its own heartland. In the Caucasus, the self-declared Chechen Islamic
Republic called for strikes against U.S. targets. "Russian policy in the north
Caucasus is in crisis because of the Islamic upsurge," says Ali Fatullayev,
an adviser to the government of Daghestan, an autonomous republic in the
Caucasus where fundamental insurgency is strongest.
Even Turkey, a long-time ally of Pakistan, has for the first time called for
action against the Taliban. "The Taliban should be stopped in
Afghanistan, otherwise it is likely to cause worrying results in the region,"
Ahat Anidcan, minister of state for foreign affairs, said at the end of
August.
The danger of Islamic insurgency and a potential conflict between Iran and
Afghanistan isn't confined to Asia. It could also badly hurt Western
companies, which have invested around $10 billion since 1992 in the
development of oil and gas fields and pipeline projects.
After the missile strike, U.S. oil giant Unocal suspended plans to build a
controversial gas pipeline that would go from Turkmenistan across
Afghanistan to Pakistan. It also pulled staff from Islamabad.
Unocal's pullout virtually ends U.S. attempts to export Central Asian
energy eastwards through pipelines that avoid Iran. It also kills the only
leverage that Washington had over the Taliban. It seems like an abrupt
about-face: Just nine months ago, the U.S. sympathized with the Taliban
because of its anti-Iran stance; it acquiesced in Pakistani and Saudi
support for the Taliban, even though it knew that bin Laden was well
ensconced with them, and it gave full backing to the Unocal pipeline
project.
Aside from the terrorist threat, a dramatic slump in oil demand in the Far
East and low global oil prices have also damaged Central Asian pipeline
projects, exacting a crippling effect on Central Asia's already weak
economies. Virtually bankrupt, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, in particular,
are desperate for new pipelines to export their energy.
As it stands, though, the future role of U.S. oil companies in Central Asia
and U.S. attempts to help stabilize Central Asian economies could be in
jeopardy. "U.S. foreign policy in the region appears directionless and
confused," comments a European diplomat in Islamabad.
Exactly what direction the U.S.' relationship will take with Pakistan and
Saudi Arabia is still unclear. But anti-American sentiment is growing in
both those countries.
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