Hi Jason:
Regarding the short-term prognosis for WCII, and
the potential for a return to $40, it all depends by
what you mean for a ''very long time.'' I think that
WCII has now formed a solid base, but I would not be
surprised if it takes 6 to 8 months of good execution
before a strong uptrend takes place. As I mentioned
before, the key milestone is the time when WCII will
go EBIDTA positive (hopefully, end of 99). Right now,
the market is very pessimistic, so that most investors
are cautious. However, as soon as fund mangers will
start seeing the game plan unfolding as predicted
(say around March to April of 99), I expect that they
will pile on WCII, since at this stage, this investment
will be a sure thing. So, I would not be surprised if we
drift around between $20 and $30 for 6 months before
a decisive upward move takes place.
In the meantime, I would like to see ARTT go down,
and WCII pick up the pieces. The current bear market
is healthy since it provides a good opportunity for
consolidation in the CLEC business around the stronger
companies (WCII in broadband wireless). I also think
that at some point, the lack of execution at TGNT
will be exposed. TGNT has an extremely long way to go
executionwise, and I am really amazed that they have been
getting a free pass from Wall Street, just based on
Alex Mandl's impeccable credentials.
Best regards,
Bernard Levy |
