<<Phil, perhaps you could explain to us the mechanism by which the market un-factors iMac sales. Some type of mass amnesia perhaps? How can you be sure the market has not un-factored OSX? Or maybe they un-factored Steve Jobs. Or maybe just the Powerbooks?>>
Jon, I totally based on expected PE ratio. When Jobs mentioned 150,000
pre-orders prior to August 15, the price surged to $41+, which I
consider it as factored-in phase. Then, overall market started
making a correction, AAPL went down accordingly. However, the
fundamental remains intact - PE went down, which I consider it as
a factored-out phase. As the overall market recovers back, the price will
be appropriately adjusted based on PE value, which will be re-factored-in phase. When the stocks got hit, everybody got a hair-cut.
However, when the market starts to rally, the fundamental comes back
which provides us a way to judge if the stock is undervalued or not.
Currently, AAPL's PE is under 20 and is one of the lowest in the same
group. Its market share as well as revenue are likely to increase in
the current and coming quarters. From every angle I look at AAPL, the
fundamental will be back, just a matter of time. When the fundamental
comes back, the good news will be re-factored in and that should be the fair
value from my viewpoint.
Phil |
