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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Follies who wrote (27465)9/11/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Dale; My opinion is that most of what we are seeing is very short
term money trading in the market. Most the people are in Funds and
the majority of them have not run to the exit. They are sold on
the so called long term "fixed investment" of cost averaging, but
that money is going into funds, before it hit's any stocks.
I also think in spite of what some brokers have said recommending
an weighting more to stocks, these same brokers want to get out
of some positions, however most of the funds are raising
cash levels.
This short term trading has a lot to do with the futures , and
arbitrage professionals, when they see a certain level of short
positions they know how to pump the market and take out half of
the shorts. So it's not the DEMs buying the dips so much, as
the pump squeeze then dump pros.
Not every one who goes short in the futures makes money, but to
hear them talk you would think they did. Fact is they don't talk
about what they lose, but in watching the contrasts I can tell
you a lot of them are losing. That's an area for professionals
who know they have what it takes to move the market.
Most amateurs with some off the shelf canned program wind up
getting clipped as soon as they over extend themselves.
And stop orders often just get picked off, so that even in a down
market shorts can and do lose money every time you see one of those
gap ups , you can bet they just got clipped.
There seems to be no end to the new blood that jumps in that
game half cocked.
Jim

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