One thing that should be evident is that you can't use fundamentals and logic to figure out future stock prices. But one thing I'd point out is a year ago this past June when WinStar fell to 9 3/4 (from 33), everybody was just as dejected and full of doubt as everyone is now. But then, for no obvious reason, the stock seemed to turn on a dime and rose by a factor of 5 over the next 12 months. So the state of where the stock is now and where we came from says nothing about where it can go in the next year. If anything, history says that once WinStar pulls out of a dive like this, a five fold increase, to 100 in this case, is possible.
That said, the state of the overall market is certainly much worse now than it was a year ago. This means much more of WinStar's decline can be attributed to the market, but also that any big move up will have to wait for the market to turn. I'm not sure that will happen this year (and I'm still thinking we'll see much lower lows thru October). But when the market turns, it could be explosive to the upside (for both the market and especially WinStar). So I'd pretty much agree with Bernard, I wouldn't expect much for 4 or 5 months, but think 100 would still be possible in 1999. |
