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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 226.05+1.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (24159)9/11/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Just some things to ponder.

Perhaps we can all agree that the business bottom is within 18 months, and try to narrow it from there.

And perhaps we can also agree that the stocks will tend to react 3 months or more before the business bottom.

Then, we might even agree that the turn will be sudden and unexpected.

Yet, it still makes sense to me that it requires an Asian recovery or stability. Then buying of semi's picks up very quickly, and equipment within just a couple months. Because of the long down period, by then, the buying is sustained. Huge daily percentage leaps in stock prices.

Does everyone see that Korea is doing better the last few months? When Japan comes out of their recession, lending stability to the weaker tigers, how long before a pick up in semi demand?
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