BK,
RE: Do you expect the entire group to fall when AMAT does? If AMAT is to fall to the levels talked about here, we should be seeing the entire group fall in sympathy. Do you feel this is realistic when many are down 84%+? In short, what exactly is not priced into these shares and could potentially be the "second shoe"?
Historical precedence! Recall that AMAT has 2x the number of shares
that it had in '96 when it was at around $22 as a bottom. I think that
if you look back it had roughly the same total sales then, as last quarter, and going forward sales look weaker. AMAT is a very
large company compared to its competition (same argument that I've
used for INTC for 18 months) and has much larger operating/business
expenses to maintain a world wide presence/support base. If the
sales/profits aren't there, neither are the investors who can find
better short/mid term returns elsewhere until things look to be
improving.
Most of the competition have reached close to their bottoms while
AMAT is being supported by the big institutional investors hoping
for a sign on the horizon that things are improving. They will have
a long wait, IMO, and I don't think they will continue to hold
thru the end of the year, especially if things look to be getting
worse, it doesn't look good on the books or help the end of year
bonus for the fund managers. I'm curious, has anyone seen AMAT
insiders making large buys at these prices, why not??? (I bet that
sent a cold shiver of reality up your spine.) AMAT commented in the
last quarterly report that they didn't buy back any shares in Q3,
why not?? There are too many shoes waiting to drop that make me think
it might be better to wait, no telling which direction they may come from. Some examples, Brazil defaulting, Korea defaulting, Russia defaulting, Japan market crash/depression, B2B going to .55,
US corporate earnings decreasing, AMAT bad Q4/end of year report,
Dow at 6200, Naz at 1000, there are numerous others.
I'll wait, thankyou.
BB
|
