Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Big Bucks who wrote (24147)	9/12/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Re: Intel effect? INTC bottomed in January 1996, and the semi-equips bottomed 6 months later. INTC bottomed in June 1998, and 6 months later is.......very close, if you're a long-term investor. INTC has been saying all year that the second half of 1998 would be better than the first half. They have a track record of being credible. They are resuming profit growth, through higher sales and higher margins. This is quite an achievement, in the face of flat profits for the economy as a whole. Profit growth resumption for semis is one of my bottom indicators. In DRAMs, I think we've hit bottom, as far as ASPs and overcapacity. ASPs can't go any lower, because they are already at the variable cost of production. Overcapacity has hit bottom; die-shrinks are being balanced by permanent fab closures. How long does it take the equipment in a new, state-of-the-art fab to become obsolete? This is the longest length of time a semi-equip downturn can last. No matter how badly semi companies overestimate demand and thereby create overcapacity, the equipment becomes junk in, what, 3 or 4 years?

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next