Robert & chirodoc,
I am not as optimistic about Japan and think the situation there will continue to deteriorate to an extent that recovery will take far longer than six months. Japanese companies, and other Asian companies that have relied on Japanese banks, will have financing problems. They are hoping to solve their problems with expanded exports, but companies cannot expand if they lack the capital. The only hope I see for Japan is for them to end their protectionism.
If one looks beyond the banking and property sectors in HK, there are many companies doing well. Similar companies are in Taiwan and Singapore. I consider HK/China, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand will be the least effected and the first to show any real recovery. The latter two and mainland China because they are less susceptible to the 'crisis' due to stronger internal economies and a lower dependence on exports. I like HK because it's a gateway to China's expanding economy. The HK economic numbers do not reflect the growth of HK companies with operations in China.
I don't see the yen getting much stronger against the $US (and it may get weaker). I hope we soon see the $US weakening against other major world currencies as I think it necessary to prevent the 'crisis' from having a major impact on the US economy. This would also aid recovery in HK and China.
Maybe the world economies should learn to succeed in spite of Japan instead of saying that Japan's recovery is vital to global recovery.
JMHO,
Ron
|
