Edward, I totally ignored the sector recommendations. I was attracted to the article because of his use of Fourier analysis. Usually I just blow off people predicting the future but I've heard for some time that the only technique with any potential to make useful short-term projections of market movements is Fourier analysis. So I saved the article and when the market tanked I dusted it off and thought it was a pretty decent prediction worth keeping an eye on:
"These are specifics of his forecast as of Aug. 6:
--The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, which reached a high of 1,187 July 17, will fall to 875 by Oct 11. The decline from its high: 26%.
(Was about 1090 on Aug 6th, now at 1009.06 with a further drop of 134 points by Oct 11th.)
--The DJIA, which reached a high of 9,338 points on July 17, will decline to 6,885 by Oct 11. A decline of 26%.
(Was about 8500 on Aug 6th, now at 7795.50 with a further drop of 911 points by Oct 11th.)
--The Nasdaq composite index, which reached a high of 2,014 July 20, will drop to 1,221 in October. A decline of 40% from its 12-month high."
(Was about 1800 on Aug 6th, now at 1641.64 with a further drop of 421 points by Oct)
I'm going to keep an eye on Mr Morrow's prediction and will review it again in mid-Oct. If he's close to being right I'll become a serious student of Fourier analysis. |
