CTC,
I don't disagree that the events surrounding Coherent and CIEN are disimilar. However, my point was that the lack of long/short arb positioning (essentially caused by fear/uncertainty in both cases) is similar and is causing a similar effect (a wide spread). If arb positioning were occuring, it would tend to tie the stock prices together. Same thing happened with Coherent, and there was a lot of hand-wringing about it.
As for the exchange ratio, I just don't see a .5x TLAB offer in the works (which works out to something like 5.5 x sales). At .8, that is 36 for CIEN, which is about 10x sales. I recall LU paid 8x sales for Livingston. Maybe you could argue for .75, which is more like 8x sales. But there is another company (Company A) that is/was interested in CIEN, so that justifies not fiddling too much, I think.
Best,
Gary Korn
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