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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD
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To: drsvelte who wrote (2899)9/13/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: R. Gates  Read Replies (2) of 14427
 
We will rally but it will have around 8200 as an ultimate cap. There's been so much bad news on all fronts that any good news (no matter how trivial) will quickly boost the market AND, the majority of experts are STILL calling this a "correction". But all this is wishful thinking. They are in the final stages of denial of the fast approaching storm clouds on the horizon. Those storm clouds include:

1. Russia- Yevgeny Primakov will be "reassuring" for a while, but his words won't put food in people's bellies or create the wealth that's been destroyed and squandered. He's a reactionary and has no real leadership vision except to bring back the "good 'ol days of communism". Things will get much much worse during the long Russian winter. Massive civil unrest or even Civil war could erupt by spring.

2. Brazil - The IMF will put the death nail in this coffin the same way it did in Asia when it came to the rescue. Brazil will devalue. That's all it will take to send the DOW down 10% just on that bit of news.

3. Clinton - He will resign rather than face inevitable impeachment.

4. China - Mother nature played a cruel joke on this country. The terrible floods will cripple the economy just enough more to be the straw that sends the currency down. China's currency devaluation will happen sooner than most believe.

The lemmings can't imagine living without their sacred Bull. They've become addicted to it during the past 15 years. The Bull can't be dead they believe, just "correcting" himself. Many of the buy and holders of course, will still call it a correction when the DOW is at 5500 and continues lower. It will soothe their egos to believe they have been right in holding on to their precious stocks when so many others have fled during this 40% or 50% or 60% "correction".

At least 2 things that will be true in 1999:

1. Gore will be president
2. World wide deflationary recession

Gold will be a good buy at first, and then not so...

All IMHO of course.

Best Regards,

R. Gates

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