Donald,
1. Stair Steps
Actually, these are corrections of the weaker kind. The only weaker kind are the corrections with the second leg of correction unable to reach the levels of the first leg.
In Elliotte wave theory (which I'm not an expert on, although I use its principles and quote it a lot) these are the classic abc corrections.
Many inconclusive arguments among the E wave followers are about the magnitude of waves (such was the disagreement between David Plonk and myself). Can you tell if the recent stair step is in your opinion a closer match to the first or the second stair step?
If it looks more like the first, then you favor my count, and if it looks like the second, then you favor David Plonk's count.
2. Japan
The Nikkei tanked over 5% with huge volume. Doesn't look like a double bottom to me.
The Nikkei's bottom from July '95 was revisited in January, June and August, and finally broken on 8/28. The feeble attempt to lift it back over 15000 (pension funds buying under orders from the high windows) was unsuccessful and two trading days after the first close below 15000 we see the Nikkei back at the low. It could be a double bottom if we bounce again, but until then it is not.
You said look at the intraday move, well, I looked, and the Nikkei had traded under 14000 during almost all of the second session, and rebounded up from the daily low in the last 15 minutes of trade.
The Nikkei chart looks bad to me. IMO it may try to rise some, but is going to make new lows soon.
ATG |
